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Giggity Gopher
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PostSubject: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 4:09 pm

Let's see what we got here. nervous

With two games left, this is the current playoff picture.

1.) Merlin Olsen Twins* - 9-2-0 - 1,270.50
2.) Pretty Ponies* - 8-3-0 - 1,217.00
3.) Attitude City Ninjas* - 8-3-0 - 1,199.50
4.) The BarnCows - 7-4-0 - 1,135.00
5.) Ball Fondlers* - 8-3-0 - 1,333.00
6.) Cairo Cardinals* - 7-3-1 - 988.00
7.) Clown Town Bliggas - 6-5-0 - 1,101.00
8.) The Carny Army - 5-6-0 - 1,107.00

Asterisks are for teams that already clinched a playoffs spot.

The following players can still make it.

9.) The Romie Resurgence - 5-6-0 - 988.50
10.) Pillsbury Doughboys - 5-6-0 - 982.00
11.) MexiHawks - 4-7-0 - 1,104.50
12.) Louisville Losers - 4-7-0 - 1,009.00
13.) Fournettecation - 3-7-1 - 980.50

That leaves Huh's Red Redskins, Moose Nuggets and Sox's Team by Proxy out of the hunt, entirely.

Caleb has essentially clinched. On the most technical technicality possible, he hasn't clinched yet. Burdur or Ian could pass him, putting him in 8th, but TJ and CB would need to not only win both games, while Caleb loses both, but they'd need to score around 150 points more than Caleb does in the last two weeks. Again, a technicality more than anything.

So, let's go over just how each remaining team can make it, with only two possible spots for seven teams.

Clown Town Bliggas: Pretty simple here. One more win and he's in. The only teams that could tie him, by that point, would Caleb, Ian, CB and TJ. Like Caleb, he'd only possibly be taken out by TJ or CB getting way more points than they can realistically get.

The Carny Army: Winning his two remaining games would clinch it for him under the same idea as Burdur and Caleb. He could still lose one or both and make it, though, if CB and TJ lose an equal amount of games and Mexi loses one.

The Romie Resurgence: If he wins one of his remaining games, he needs Ian to lose both of his, while needing CB to lose at least one (and staying under him with points) and he needs Mexi and Rellim to lose both, due to how many points they have. If he wins both of his remaining games, he'd need two of the following three things to happen: Burdur loses both games, Ian and CB lose at least one (or CB remains under him in points). If he loses both remaining games, he's out.

Pillsbury Doughboys: He essentially needs the same as TJ, except replace CB having less points than TJ with TJ having less points than CB.

MexiHawks: If he wins one of his remaining games and not the other, he's out. He'd need Ian, TJ and CB all to lose both of theirs, but TJ is facing CB this week. If he wins his two remaining games, he needs a combination of two between: Burdur losing both and not passing him in points, Ian losing both or losing just once but dropping under Mexi in points, CB and TJ losing at least once.

Louisville Losers: He has to win twice, due to his points total being too far under Ian's. If he wins twice, he needs Ian to lose twice and Mexi to lose once.

Fournettecation: The most farfetched choice possible, but it's still a possibility. He'd need to win both of his remaining games while everyone from rank 8-under, who's still in contention, loses both of theirs (excluding Mexi and Greg, who'd need to lose once). The draw would give him 8th place.

Now, while six people are already guaranteed in, the seeds are still up in the air. I'm the only person who guaranteed their division lead. Caleb or Burdur can lead the East division (due to Ian's 0.5 loss to Caleb in week 1, he can't win a tiebreaker against him and Burdur's 3-0 in the division). Pat or JHalc can lead the South division. And Drachen or Abdel can lead the West division. So myself + any of those six guys can end in the top 4.

Last thing I wanna look at here are the matchups for the last two weeks to determine who's more likely to win. Burdur needs a single win to guarantee him a spot, but he's facing me and then CB. Those are two games that could easily go either way. Ian's got Greg and then Moose. A win against Moose is just about guaranteed and I feel like a win over Greg is likely (would be even likelier if he still adjusted his lineup). If he wins both, he's clinched, and I think he has a very good chance for that (which would automatically take Rellim and Greg out of contention). TJ's got CB and then Abdel. Both are games I could see going either way, though I'd edge them in TJ's favor. CB has TJ and Burdur, which are both matches I already said could go either way. I do think he's more likely to lose both of them, though. Mexi needs a very unlikely win against Pat, followed by what will probably be a win over Red Sox. Rellim's got Huh (likely an easy win) and JHalc (not so much). Finally, Greg has Ian and Caleb, both possible to win, but I don't expect it.

So, I'm expecting Ian to win his remaining two and claim a spot in the playoffs. Outside of him, I think the most likely to get in his Burdur. He could very well lose both of his remaining games, but I don't think it's likely he doesn't win at least one. If he wins at least once and Ian wins both, they're clinched, so that's my guess. Assuming Burdur ends up losing both games, I'd say the most likely in would be TJ. I can't see Mexi beating Pat (though it is possible) and I think TJ has the easier match-ups than CB. Although CB would be beating Burdur in the scenario that Burdur loses both of his. CB vs. TJ this week could be a very important game. If Ian wins out, like I expect, and I beat Burdur, it'll be down to the winner of CB/TJ and Burdur. Whoever loses couldn't pass Burdur, due to the points difference.

So, for this week, the most important matches with playoff contendership implications are me vs. Burdur, Ian vs. Greg and CB vs. TJ. If Burdur beats me, he's in. If Ian beats Greg, while Burdur wins, then the loser of CB/TJ is guaranteed out. And, to be honest, if Ian wins this week, he's pretty much guaranteed to go in. No way does he lose to Moose in week 13. Him and Burdur winning this week essentially confirms the playoffs, outside of seeds.

Mexi, Rellim and Greg are all in must-win matches.


Last edited by Giggity Gopher on Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 4:17 pm

I love how professional this is clap
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 7:47 pm

^ Are you saying mine in past years wasn't? clown

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 7:50 pm

http://www.wrestlefanatics.com/t33224-the-fantasy-football-playoff-race-2017

I added each team's remaining opponents and strength of schedule to mine (happy)

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 8:06 pm

Very well written, Snoopz. Much better than that shit that Burdur slopped together and called a breakdown last year.
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 9:10 pm

clown clown clown

Snoopz could've at least gave us each person's remaining schedule Thirsty Mofos

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 9:24 pm

@Giggity Gopher wrote:
Last thing I wanna look at here are the matchups for the last two weeks to determine who's more likely to win. Burdur needs a single win to guarantee him a spot, but he's facing me and then CB. Those are two games that could easily go either way. Ian's got Greg and then Moose. A win against Moose is just about guaranteed and I feel like a win over Greg is likely (would be even likelier if he still adjusted his lineup). If he wins both, he's clinched, and I think he has a very good chance for that (which would automatically take Rellim and Greg out of contention). TJ's got CB and then Abdel. Both are games I could see going either way, though I'd edge them in TJ's favor. CB has TJ and Burdur, which are both matches I already said could go either way. I do think he's more likely to lose both of them, though. Mexi needs a very unlikely win against Pat, followed by what will probably be a win over Red Sox. Rellim's got Huh (likely an easy win) and JHalc (not so much). Finally, Greg has Ian and Caleb, both possible to win, but I don't expect it.
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 9:26 pm

Instead of just saying in a list who each person's got left to face, I gave actual analysis for it. (happy)
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 20, 2018 10:25 pm

That's only for a few people though Thirsty Mofos

Mine was nice and neatly presented so everyone knew who each person was facing for Week 12 & Week 13 (happy)

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 21, 2018 2:04 am

It was for everyone who hasn't yet guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. And, again, with actual analysis. (happy)

Although, the point of this thread wasn't to talk about the amazing job I did, but, rather, to reflect on what I posted and discuss who we think will make the playoffs and who will get what seeds. nervous
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 21, 2018 2:41 am

@Giggity Gopher wrote:
A win against Moose is just about guaranteed
OBJECTION!
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 21, 2018 5:45 pm

ITT: Burdur has an inferiority complex.
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 21, 2018 6:35 pm

I've won 3 of my last four, maybe just maybe. Funny
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 21, 2018 10:44 pm

@MooseNugget wrote:
@Giggity Gopher wrote:
A win against Moose is just about guaranteed
OBJECTION!
Playoff Scenarios LCSthqM
Is Dirty Andy Dalton gonna show up? Moose

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyThu Nov 22, 2018 6:06 pm

I love it.

To Mexi I say: “Hear me and rejoice! You will have the privilege of being saved by the great Pat! You may think this is suffering ... no, it is salvation. The fantasy football scales tip toward me because of your sacrifice. Smile, because even in defeat you have become one of the children of Saintpat!”
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptySun Nov 25, 2018 11:32 pm

@Saintpat wrote:
To Mexi I say: “Hear me and rejoice! You will have the privilege of being saved by the great Pat! You may think this is suffering ... no, it is salvation. The fantasy football scales tip toward me because of your sacrifice. Smile, because even in defeat you have become one of the children of Saintpat!”
ROFL! NAH clown
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyTue Nov 27, 2018 3:38 am

Just gonna give a quick update after this week's games (I'll likely go further in depth later, when I'm not tired).

Barring any big surprises in week 13, Pat will end with the #1 seed. The three following that gets dicey. Me and Drachen are playing for #2. If I win, I get it. If he wins, he gets it. If I beat Drachen, Drachen will most likely get #3. Caleb technically is within reach of his points, but he'd still need like 58 points more than Drachen gets next week. With me, however, he only needs about 22.5 more points. So if Drachen beats me and Caleb wins his game, while getting enough points, he'd take 3rd and I'd take 4th. If I beat Drachen, I take 2nd and, most likely, Drachen takes 3rd and I take 4th.

After that, JHalc and Abdel are essentially set at 5th and 6th. Abdel can't pass or be passed by anyone. JHalc could swap spots with Pat if he wins and Pat loses, but it's highly unlikely Huh beats Pat.

So, the top 6 are likely to look like this if I beat Drachen:

1.) Pat
2.) Me
3.) Drachen
4.) Caleb
5.) JHalc
6.) Abdel

And if Drachen beats me (assuming Caleb beats Greg, which is a likely bet):

1.) Pat
2.) Drachen
3.) Caleb/Me
4.) Me/Caleb
5.) JHalc
6.) Abdel

The final two spots are still in reach for the following players: Burdur, Ian, TJ, Mexi, Rellim and CB.

Burdur and TJ clinch a spot if they win their games. Mexi has to win while either Burdur or TJ lose to make it. Ian needs to win while two of Mexi, TJ and Burdur lose. He'd also need to score a little extra over Burdur to pass him. Rellim has to win while Ian, TJ and Mexi all lose. CB has to win (and gain about 25 points more than TJ) while TJ, Mexi, Rellim and Ian all lose.

Rellim and CB are both very unlikely to make it. It's mainly down to the other four.  Burdur's facing CB, TJ's facing Abdel, Ian's facing Moose and Mexi's facing Red Sox. Mexi and Ian are both very likely to win their matches, while the other two can go either way. TJ has a bit of an advantage in his game with the Fournette suspension.
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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 28, 2018 1:17 am

Someone tell Moose to stop clowning around and fix his FF lineup clown

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PostSubject: Re: Playoff Scenarios   Playoff Scenarios EmptyWed Nov 28, 2018 7:34 pm

Man what's everyone's best and worst possible seeding? Thirsty Mofos

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